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Track record: declared confidence vs. real outcomes

Every Verdika memo declares how much confidence its recommendation deserves, with a mathematical cap based on evidence quality. And every decision can record how it actually turned out. This page shows the aggregate, straight from the database: no cherry-picked rows, no makeup. If declared confidence and the real hit rate ever diverge, it shows here first.

Decisions analyzed
With recorded outcome
Hit rate
Avg. declared confidence
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The method is documented: how a decision memo is structured and why confidence cannot be faked. The data on this page comes from the public endpoint /calibration/public, which anyone can query.

Analyze your decision, free
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